Every second Indian will go mobile by 2012

NEW DELHI: With India now adding 8-10 million mobile subscribers every month, up to half the nation’s population-or one in every two citizens-will own a mobile phone in India by the middle of 2012.

According to Business Monitor International, a renowned London-based research firm, 612 million mobile subscribers by 2012 will help India clock a mobile teledensity of roughly 51% by 2012. This scorching pace of growth is unlikely to falter unless the sector faces unforeseen policy disasters or if India’s operators fail to roll out their networks.

International Telecom Union’s (ITU) projections are in the same range.India is already the world’s second largest mobile market, behind China’s 500 plus million mobile subscriber base.

Increasing incomes, changing lifestyles and lower cost of technology are allowing more and more Indians to ride the telecom wave. The new numbers overtake earlier estimates, including from UBS, Citigroup and Credit Suisse, predicting a mobile population of 400-450 million by March 2010. Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers have been more even conservative, betting on a base of just 400 million by 2010.

However, India will reach this milestone in 2009 itself. India’s mobile revolution has been a huge social leveler, with the growing number of users tying a diverse nation in a manner rarely seen before.

Its youth are expected to contribute significantly to these surging numbers. Sir Richard Branson, founder, Virgin Group, which tied up with Tata Teleservices to launch branded services in India recently said, “An exciting market, with over 215 million Indians aged 14-25 years. Over the next three years we expect to be adding 50 million new youth subscribers.’’

While companies like Virgin are currently focused on the urban market, it is clear that the next set of growth will come from B and C category cities as well as rural India. Mobile penetration of this magnitude has the ability to revolutionalize long distance learning and health care quickly reaching some of the most far flung and difficult terrains.

Where mobile content is concerned most analysts agree that, largely on the back of India’s popular film industry, music services will grow very quickly, even if other content related revenue lags behind.

Given that a reasonable part of the population by 2010 will be children below 14 and senior citizens, it seems mobile access among the youth and working classes will be more in the range of 70-80%. In policy terms, government needs to quickly turn its focus on redirecting funds for rural mobile access, manage spectrum efficiently and invite multi-billion dollar investments at a pan-India level to fuel this already scorching telecom growth.

Source : Economic Times